Dear Reader

Welcome to the June edition of the Money Mentor monthly newsletter, brought to you by Vantage Financial Planning, your trusted guide through the ever-evolving world of personal finance. Each month, we explore insights in financial education, coaching, advice, and technology in shaping your financial future.

💬 Difficult Conversations 🧭

The conversations we avoid about money, relationships, career, or legacy often hold the keys to the transformation we seek. When it comes to finances, the problem isn’t always a lack of knowledge. Most of us generally know what we should do. The real challenge is consistently doing it.

Financial change doesn’t hinge on willpower alone. It’s about disrupting deeply ingrained habits and patterns etched into our routines over years, even decades. Forces like inertia, apathy, lifestyle creep, consumerism, instant gratification, the hedonic treadmill, and the golden handcuffs of success can silently erode our financial well-being. Add the constant busyness of life, and it’s easy to see how we slip into reactive rather than proactive financial behaviour.

Real progress requires presence, reflection, and the courage to be uncomfortable. It means slowing down long enough to examine our autopilot tendencies and begin making decisions with greater intention. Most financial breakthroughs are disguised as hard conversations we’ve postponed, waiting for a crisis to force our hand:

Financial planning is not just about spreadsheets or investments; it’s about reclaiming control. It’s about moving from reactive decisions to deliberate action, from avoidance to alignment. When you're ready to face those hard conversations with the right mindset and support you set the stage for lasting change.

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✅ One Good Decision 🌱

I’m a firm believer in the ripple effect of one small, well-placed decision especially when repeated consistently. A single good choice, made intentionally, can generate momentum, build confidence, and over time reshape not just your financial reality, but your very identity.

While big goals give us direction, it’s the small, achievable steps designed with intention and supported by systems that move us forward. The key is to make the process attractive, frictionless, and sustainable, especially on the days when motivation inevitably wanes.

Self-awareness is your greatest asset in this journey. When challenges arise (and they always do), it’s your self-awareness that helps you recognize unhelpful patterns, push past resistance, and stay aligned with your values and priorities:

One of the most underrated practices in personal finance is financial organization. Many people are tempted to hand this off entirely to a professional but doing so can short-circuit the long-term benefits. It’s not a zero-sum game, external guidance is valuable, but engaging in the process yourself is essential for growth.

Think of it like working with a personal trainer. They provide structure, support, and accountability but they can’t do the workout for you. The true value comes from your own effort, discipline, and progress. The same principle applies to your financial life. Systems help, advisors guide, but ownership is what transforms your financial habits into lasting well-being.

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📈 Compounding Positively or Negatively 📉

Your future isn’t something that just happens it’s something you’re actively shaping, moment by moment. Each day, with every choice, you're casting a vote: either for intentional growth or for staying on autopilot. The distinction may seem subtle in the short term, but over time, it creates a vast divide.

Positive compounding begins with small, proactive steps, asking better questions and seeking clarity. These choices don’t feel dramatic in the moment, but they compound into the future. They create momentum and eventually they give rise to a future defined by confidence, clarity, and control.

Negative compounding on the other hand doesn’t feel like a decision at all. It’s what happens when we delay, defer, or distract ourselves from what matters. Left unattended, time and unconscious habits will chart your course and rarely do they steer in your favour:

Proactive planning is the antidote. It doesn’t require perfect execution, it requires presence, pattern-breaking, and a willingness to make the next right decision.

What you do today, however small, may seem insignificant but small things done consistently over a sustained period of time has a big impact. The results will not show for a while, but they accumulate quietly, powerfully shaping the trajectory of your financial life and ultimately your sense of freedom and fulfilment.

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💆‍♂️ Reducing Anxiety, Promoting Progress 🚀

At the heart of behavioural financial advice lies a simple but powerful mission, to reduce financial anxiety and promote healthy, sustainable financial behaviour.

Money is rarely just about numbers. For most people, it’s tied to emotion, identity, and past experiences. Financial anxiety can creep in silently from uncertainty about the future, fear of making mistakes, or feeling overwhelmed by complexity and competing demands. Left unaddressed, that anxiety becomes a barrier to progress, clarity, and confidence:

A behavioural advisors goal is to create space for better conversations, decision-making, and habits. It’s about helping clients replace fear with clarity, confusion with confidence, and autopilot behaviour with intentional action.

Great financial behaviour isn’t about perfection it’s about consistency, self-awareness, and aligning decisions with values. Personal finance is personal.

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📰 Monthly Economic Update

🛒 Inflation

In the United States, headline PCE inflation stood at 2.3% year-over-year in May, rising slightly from 2.2% in April.

Across the Eurozone, inflation is stabilizing, with a downward trend aligning with the European Central Bank's target. May CPI was approximately 2.4%, continuing to soften. Ireland reported HICP inflation of 2.1% in May, comfortably below the euro area average, driven by easing prices in energy and housing.

📉 Interest Rates

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%/4.5% during its June meeting, but hinted at the possibility of up to 50 basis points in cuts later this year if economic data permits.

The ECB reduced its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% and signaled a final cut may come in September, likely concluding its easing cycle. Ireland, as a member of the Eurozone, continues to follow ECB policy and now benefits from a more accommodative interest rate environment.

💼 Unemployment

The U.S. labour market remains stable, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. However, layoffs in the tech sector, including high-profile reductions at Microsoft and Amazon, reflect the growing influence of AI on employment.

In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate remains historically low at 6.4%, though labor markets are starting to cool in some sectors. Ireland continues to perform well, maintaining a 4.2% unemployment rate with ongoing strength in the technology and pharmaceutical industries.

🛍️ Consumer Spending & Sentiment

In the U.S., consumer spending is slowing across all income groups, and confidence remains mixed amid sticky inflation and persistent uncertainty.

The Eurozone shows weak retail activity but some optimism in the services sector. Consumer sentiment remains cautious, shaped by trade-related headwinds. Ireland’s retail sales are mostly flat, with households showing heightened price sensitivity, although consumer confidence is notably stronger than the EU average.

💵 Bond Market Yields

U.S. bond yields continued their upward climb, with the 10-year yield around 4.29% and the 30-year reaching approximately 4.83%, reflecting investor concerns about fiscal policy and trade developments.

Eurozone, core bond yields held steady to slightly higher, while spreads on peripheral debt tightened after the ECB cut. Ireland’s 10-year bond yield sits near 2.8%, closely tracking German bunds, and maintains low borrowing costs that support domestic growth.

📈 Equity Markets Performance

U.S. equity markets experienced a strong rebound in June, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq surpassing key thresholds following robust Q1 earnings and a temporary pause in tariff escalations.

In the Eurozone, equity indices such as the DAX, CAC, and EuroStoxx posted broad gains after the ECB rate cut, with industrials and financials leading the rally. Ireland’s ISEQ index remains positive year-to-date, driven by strong performance from multinationals.

🚫 Sanctions & Tariffs

The U.S. and China agreed to a partial rollback of tariffs in June, offering short-term relief, though protectionist risks persist, especially with the introduction of President Trump’s new fiscal agenda.

The Eurozone has not implemented new sanctions but continues to monitor potential fallout from U.S.-China tensions. Ireland is indirectly exposed to tariff impacts via EU-wide trade agreements and is watching closely for any revival in U.S.-EU disputes.

🌍 Geopolitical Risk / War Outlook

In the U.S., strategic tensions with China over the South China Sea have intensified, raising fears that ongoing economic competition may spill into military conflict.

The Eurozone remains unified under NATO and is focused on maintaining stability in Eastern Europe. Ireland maintains a neutral stance, being non-aligned militarily, and instead concentrates on safeguarding economic and trade interests.

⚡ Energy Prices

U.S. energy prices remained stable in June, supported by strong domestic production, which has helped insulate the economy from global volatility.

The Eurozone benefited from moderate energy prices due to diversified LNG imports, which have eased pressure on manufacturing costs. In Ireland, electricity and gas prices continued to decline from their 2022 peaks, leading to gradual improvements in affordability despite remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

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✨ Gold

Gold has attracted renewed investor demand as a safe haven amid heightened geopolitical risk and growing concerns about global economic stability. While gold’s recent price strength is notable, it remains inherently volatile and historically inconsistent over long periods:

Gold lagged global equities leading up to and in the aftermath the dotcom bubble of the early 2000s but surged during the 2008 global financial crisis, then fell and moved mostly sideways until the COVID-19 pandemic renewed its appeal. Recent drivers of Gold:

🌍 Geopolitical Tensions

Ongoing conflicts like the invasion of Ukraine, unrest in the Middle East, and global trade disputes are driving heightened uncertainty across financial markets.

🚫 Sanctions & De-Dollarisation

Sanctions on countries like Russia and Iran have restricted their access to Western financial systems. In response, non-Western central banks are shifting reserves toward gold to reduce dependence on the US dollar and avoid potential asset freezes.

🏛️ Unsustainable US Fiscal Policy

Years of tax cuts, heavy spending, and record-high deficits have ballooned US national debt. With interest rates now higher, debt servicing costs are rising sharply putting additional strain on the federal budget.

🗳️ Political Gridlock

Short-term political incentives often lead to more spending and tax cuts, worsening long-term imbalances. Structural reforms are deferred, increasing the risk of severe future crises when tough decisions can no longer be avoided.

🏛️ Central Banks Turn to Gold

In the face of these risks, many central banks are increasing their gold reserves a defensive move that continues to support the price of gold globally.

⚖️ Gold’s Intrinsic Value

Gold doesn’t generate income like stocks, bonds, property/land so its intrinsic value isn’t tied to cash flows. Instead, it comes from a blend of:

Scarcity & Durability: Limited supply and physical permanence make it a reliable store of value.

Monetary Role: Trusted by central banks as a hedge against currency risk and systemic instability.

Inflation Hedge: Often rises when real interest rates fall or inflation erodes fiat currency.

Psychological Value: Acts as a “fear barometer” during uncertainty—valued for thousands of years.

While the drivers above explain gold’s recent surge, Vantage's investment strategy remains guided by three core principles:

1. Long-term capital appreciation
2. A steady income stream (dividends, interest, rent, royalties)
3. Growth in that income over time

Gold satisfies the first of these principles as it produces no income and relies entirely on price appreciation, which can be unpredictable.

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📚 Recommended resources 💡

JP Morgan Guide To The Markets (EMEA Monthly):

​​​JP Morgan Guide to the Markets EMEA 31st May 2025.pdf​​​​​​​​​

Monthly podcast recommendations:

The Memo by Howard Marks: The Winds of Change

Listen on Spotify

The Memo by Howard Marks: Selling Out

Listen on Spotify

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If you are interested in personal finance education, coaching, advice or technology, please reach out to me on my contact details below.

If you found this month's newsletter useful, feel free to share it with family, friends and colleagues. Constructive feedback is always welcome! If there's any personal finance topic you'd like covered please let me know.

Until next month.

Kind regards,

Ken Mason CFP®

Tel: (01) 539 2670

Mobile: 083 803 2008

Email: ken.mason@vantagefp.ie

www.linkedin.com

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