Dear Reader

The mornings are cooler, the evenings darker, and there’s a familiar autumn freshness in the air. The clocks go back on Sunday, 25th October, giving us an extra hour before Halloween gives way to the Christmas countdown.

There’s plenty ahead: Budget 2027 on the 6th of October, the US midterm elections on 3rd of November and Anthropic’s anticipated stock market debut later that month. Energy prices, inflation, interest rates, government debt, company earnings and AI will keep competing for headlines in the meantime.

Whether you’re running a business, managing a team, building your career or enjoying retirement, the challenge is the same: deciding what matters for your finances and what’s simply noise. We can’t control the headlines, but we can plan for change. This month, we focus on what deserves your attention before 2026 draws to a close.

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Why Is Planning Ahead So Difficult?

Most of us want financial peace of mind, making time for it is another matter. Three familiar barriers tend to get in the way:

Fear: “I’d rather not know.” “What if I get it wrong?” “Who can I trust?” Fear of mistakes, judgement or being taken advantage of can make avoidance feel safer. Trust and privacy matter but we often scrutinise the risks of taking action while overlooking the risks of doing nothing. Meanwhile, advice from family members, friends, colleagues or an online personality can escape the checks we would rightly apply to a professional.

Overwhelm: “I’m too busy.” “I don’t know where to start.” “I need to get organised first.” Between work, family and everyday demands, finances can feel like another job. We spend years earning money but struggle to set aside an hour to manage it. You don’t need to understand everything or have perfect paperwork before getting help. Getting organised is part of the process, not an entrance exam. The cost of advice deserves scrutiny; so does the cost of another year’s delay.

Comfort and control: “I’m doing fine.” “I can do it myself.” “I don’t want someone telling me how to spend my money.” Managing your own finances is a valid choice. Having the ability, though, isn’t the same as following through. A good income doesn’t automatically create lasting security. If habit and inertia are making the decisions, how much control do you really have?

The common thread is human: avoiding discomfort today, even when it may create more tomorrow. We know our health, fitness and relationships need regular attention, our finances deserve the same courtesy.

Earning a good living is only part of the equation. Turning it into lasting security and independence takes intention and follow-through. Past decisions don’t have to dictate your next one. Start with one manageable action: review your spending, find that pension statement or book the conversation you’ve been putting off. Give your financial wellbeing the attention it deserves. Your future self will thank you.

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The Cost of Waiting

When Time is Plentiful, Money Often isn’t

Starting young gives your money more time to compound. It also gives good financial decisions longer to make a difference. Yet the people with the longest investment horizon often have the least spare cash and the most competing demands: developing a career, paying rent, saving for a home, getting married, raising children and sometimes supporting parents. Telling them to “just invest more” overlooks the reality of their lives.

Human Capital: Your earning potential is an asset. For many younger people, their greatest financial asset is their ability to invest in their future earning potential: the skills, health, knowledge and relationships that support a working life. A qualification, a career move or the breathing room to pursue a better opportunity may do more for your long-term finances than squeezing every spare euro into an investment account. Investing in yourself deserves a place in the plan too.

Your time has value: Spending hours to save a few euro can be worthwhile when money is tight. But those hours also have value: learning a skill, applying for a better job or spending time with people you care about. A bargain that costs you an entire Saturday isn’t necessarily cheap.

Asymmetry of Experiences: Some opportunities have an expiry date. A trip with friends at 25 may not be possible at 65. The same goes for time with young children or experiences with parents while they are healthy. Retirement can bring enormous freedom, but a larger bank balance cannot buy back every opportunity. Some experiences need the right combination of health, energy, company and timing. That doesn’t make every purchase worthwhile. It does mean a financial plan should make room for meaningful spending today alongside security tomorrow.

Compounding still deserves a place: Start sustainably, build as you go. Compounding still matters. The aim is to establish a habit you can sustain, then increase contributions as your earnings and circumstances allow. The illustration assumes everyone invests €300 a month, real life is less tidy. Investing in your earning potential may allow you to contribute more later. Equally, relying on future pay rises to make up for years of delay leaves you exposed if life takes another turn.

There is a cost to waiting. There is also a cost to sacrificing education, health, relationships and experiences simply to maximise a retirement balance. Over a working life, the aim is to build assets that can eventually support us without needing to work. Good planning helps fund that transition while leaving room to enjoy the years along the way.

Give the next generation a head start: Parents and grandparents can help ease this tension, provided their own financial needs and lifestyle are secure. Money invested for children from an early age has years to grow before their first payslip arrives. That support can give them more room to pursue education, career opportunities and meaningful experiences while building their own financial security.

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The Messy Middle

You have goals, a direction and the satisfaction of getting started. Retirement is a destination on the horizon. Between the two lies the messy middle: the years when careers, family and financial commitments compete for the same money, time and energy. On paper, progress looks orderly. In practice, the boiler breaks, childcare costs rise, a parent needs support and work becomes uncertain all in the same month.

These may be your strongest earning years, they can also be your most expensive. Rising living costs swallow some of each pay increase, while lifestyle creep quietly helps itself to the rest. Mortgage repayments, home repairs and the cost of raising children can sit alongside reduced working hours and support for ageing parents.

Then there are the bigger disruptions: serious illness, bereavement, divorce, job loss or a business that doesn’t work out. Income can fall just as expenses rise, forcing difficult decisions when you have the least energy to make them.

Build room for life to go off script. Financial resilience means having options when circumstances change. Accessible savings, manageable commitments, appropriate insurance and breathing room in your budget can help absorb the impact. We cannot predict every setback, but we can prepare for the possibility. A plan that only works when everything goes right needs a rethink.

Adapt the plan, keep the direction. Staying the course means adjusting as life changes. Sometimes progress is increasing your pension contributions, sometimes it is getting through a difficult year without taking on expensive debt.

A good financial planner helps you decide what matters now, what can wait and what needs to change bringing perspective, structure and accountability when you have enough on your plate. You don’t need a perfect run. You need a plan that can handle a few detours.

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Year-End Checklist:

Tax Refunds and Employee Benefits

Before the year closes, employees and employers have an opportunity to recover overlooked tax reliefs, review pension contributions and make better use of employee benefits. A little attention now can prevent valuable opportunities from expiring.

Employees: three dates for your diary

31st of October 2026: Review your pension top-up opportunity. If you have unused pension tax-relief capacity for 2025, you may be able to make an additional contribution and elect to claim relief against that year’s income, subject to the relevant limits. The extended deadline is 18th of November 2026 through Revenue's Online Service. Arrange both the contribution and the relief election in good time.

31st of December 2026: The final deadline for 2022 refunds. Review your records and submit any outstanding claims before the four-year refund window closes. You can also review 2023, 2024 and 2025 now; there is no need to wait until January.

January 2027: Complete your 2026 annual review. At that point, the four years available for review will be 2023–2026. Some reliefs, including qualifying health expenses and the rent tax credit, can already be claimed during 2026 through myAccount.

Your review should cover the following, where applicable and subject to the rules for each tax year:

• Unreimbursed medical expenses, including qualifying IVF and non-routine dental treatment.
• Tax relief on health insurance paid by your employer.
• Rent tax credit and mortgage interest tax credit.
• Qualifying third-level tuition fees.
• Remote working relief and occupation-specific flat rate expenses.
• Eligible income protection premiums not already relieved through payroll.
• The allocation of transferable tax credits and rate bands between spouses or civil partners.
• Potential overpayments following a job change, time abroad, reduced hours or a period out of work.

Claiming directly through Revenue’s myAccount is free.

Employers: make your benefits budget work harder

Before 31st of December 2026, review your use of the Small Benefit Exemption. Employers can provide up to five qualifying non-cash benefits per employee each year, with a combined value of up to €1,500. Unused allowance cannot be carried forward.

Ahead of your company year-end, review employer pension contributions and the wider benefits package. Before setting your 2027 budget, assess each provider’s charges, service and suitability for your workforce.

Give employees a clear total reward statement showing the full value of their package: salary, bonus, commission, share awards, pension contributions, death-in-service cover, income protection, health insurance, education, training and other benefits. Benefits that employees cannot see or understand are harder to appreciate and use.

Access to financial products is increasingly commoditised. The real test is whether employees understand their benefits, use them and make better financial decisions. Education, coaching, advice and technology help turn a benefits budget into practical value.

Do you know how much your business and employees are paying, to whom and for what and whether the value justifies the cost? If you would like help reviewing your personal financial priorities or the value of your employee benefits, please get in touch.

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Monthly Market Wrap

Energy

The energy picture has improved, although the disruption is far from over. Reports at month-end indicate that Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered towards pre-war levels as producers restore flows and use alternative routes. Refined fuels, including diesel and petrol, remain more constrained. Getting crude moving is only part of the job.

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on the 30th of September. Damaged infrastructure, depleted inventories and shipping risks continue to support high prices, even as crude deliveries recover. More oil on the move does not immediately mean cheaper fuel at the pump:

China has helped absorb the shock by drawing on stored oil while keeping imports below pre-war levels. Its onshore crude stocks were estimated at 1.23 billion barrels on the 9th of September, according to data cited by Reuters. That is a substantial buffer, but neither its availability nor China’s willingness to keep using it should be treated as unlimited.

For investors, prolonged energy pressure would squeeze household spending and many companies’ margins, while benefiting some energy producers. The consequences reach well beyond the forecourt.

Inflation

US headline PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, stood at 3.4% in August, with core inflation at 3.0%. Both remain above its 2% target. Consumer spending increased by 0.6% after inflation during the month, indicating resilient demand. The Trump administration’s removal of explicit protections against political interference raises concerns about statistical independence.

In Ireland, CPI inflation reached 3.7% in August. Using the CSO’s published index levels, consumer prices were approximately 27.8% higher than in January 2020, equivalent to about 3.8% a year compounded. A basket costing €100 then would cost roughly €128 now:

Your personal inflation rate is what matters most. Lifestyle creep adds another layer: more travel, a more expensive car and subscriptions you don't really use. The practical question is whether your income and investment returns, after inflation, tax and costs, are keeping pace with your spending needs. A falling inflation rate still means rising prices; it simply means they are rising more slowly.

Interest Rates

On the 16th of September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4.00%. The ECB also raised its key rates in September, taking its deposit rate to 2.50% and its main refinancing rate to 2.65%:

For Irish borrowers, ECB policy is the more direct link. Tracker mortgages follow their contractual ECB benchmark. Variable rates depend on lender decisions, while fixed-rate borrowers are insulated until their fixed period ends. Their next rate will depend on the deal available at that point.

Higher rates cannot repair a pipeline or produce another barrel of oil. They restrain borrowing and spending, helping prevent an energy shock from spreading into persistent price and wage increases. The difficulty is that households and businesses can end up facing higher fuel bills and financing costs together.

For investors, higher yields can improve the income available on new deposits and bonds. They also put pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices and on share valuations, particularly where much of the expected profit lies years ahead.

Government Debt

The US ten-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.3% on the 30th of September, moving beyond the 5.04% level seen earlier in the month. Higher yields mean lower prices for existing fixed-rate bonds and more expensive financing for new borrowers.

This comes with US gross federal debt already above $40 trillion. Higher borrowing costs feed into the government’s interest bill as debt matures and is refinanced; it does not apply to the entire debt overnight.

The US is relying more heavily on short-term borrowing as long-term financing becomes more expensive, commentators are increasingly using the phrase "paying of a mortgage with a credit card" when it comes to the US government refinancing it's maturing debts. This can reduce immediate borrowing costs, but it means refinancing more frequently at whatever interest rates markets demand. Changing the maturity of debt does not resolve the gap between government spending and revenue.

Scott Bessent’s “3-3-3” strategy targets a deficit of 3% of GDP, 3% real annual growth and an additional 3 million barrels of oil-equivalent energy production per day. Progress needs to be assessed against comparable measures:

Deficit: The fiscal-year 2025 deficit was 5.9% of GDP, almost twice the target. A smaller deficit would slow the accumulation of debt; it would not mean the government had stopped borrowing.

Growth: Real US GDP grew at an annualised 2.2% in Q2, following a revised 2.5% in Q1. Those are quarterly growth rates expressed annually, rather than full-year results. It is estimated that the AI infrastructure build out alone makes up 1% of US GDP.

Energy: Crude production reached approximately 13.9 million barrels daily in early September, versus a 2024 average of 13.2 million, roughly 700,000 additional barrels.

Political incentives remain central, in a 2011 CNBC interview, Warren Buffett suggested making sitting members of Congress ineligible for re-election whenever the deficit exceeded 3% of GDP. His point was accountability; politicians would have a stronger incentive to address deficits if their own positions depended on it. Delaying difficult decisions increases the risk that rising borrowing costs eventually force more painful ones.

The US retains a considerable advantage through the dollar’s dominant reserve-currency role. Dollars accounted for 57.1% of global foreign-exchange reserves in Q1 2026. That supports demand for dollar assets but does not guarantee cheap borrowing or eliminate the consequences of persistent deficits. Gold offers a different form of protection, but no guaranteed outcome. It produces no income; its price can fall and access during severe disruption depends on how it is held.

Company Earnings

With Q2 results behind us, attention turns to what companies can deliver next and how much investors are already paying for that growth. FactSet’s 25th of September report shows S&P 500 earnings rose 52.2% year-on-year, revenues increased 15.6%, and 86% of companies exceeded earnings expectations. Net profit margins reached 17%:

Alphabet reported $98 billion in other income, primarily from unrealised equity gains from the revaluation of its SpaceX holding following it's IPO, while Amazon reported $53.4 billion in non-operating pre-tax income, primarily linked to the revaluation of it's Anthropic stake following private funding rounds. These were largely paper gains, rather than cash profits from selling products and services. They can lift reported earnings sharply and reverse if those valuations fall.

Growth expectations are also concentrated, technology accounts for 61% of S&P 500 companies issuing Q3 earnings guidance above analysts’ expectations. Excluding semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, forecast technology earnings growth falls from 63.3% to 24.2%. That remains strong growth, but it shows how heavily the sector’s headline figure depends on one industry.

This creates a less visible form of concentration: different businesses can share exposure to the same AI companies through their investments, customers, and infrastructure spending. The investment question is how much of today’s spending will translate into lasting profits. If spending slows, competition squeezes margins or confidence fades, both earnings forecasts and the prices investors will pay for those earnings can fall together.

Even rising profits can accompany falling share prices when results fall short of expectations. As of the 25th of September, the S&P 500 traded at 19.2 times forecast earnings, close to its ten-year average of 19.0 and down from 20.4 at the end of June. That lower multiple makes valuations look less demanding, but their apparent affordability depends on forecast profits being delivered. A lower multiple alone does not mean better value.

Artificial Intelligence

AI safety concerns are becoming tangible business risks. OpenAI’s published assessment describes advanced capabilities for finding and exploiting cybersecurity weaknesses, while Anthropic has reported misuse involving cyber operations, fraud and biological research. These are developers’ assessments and disclosures; they do not establish predictions of human extinction as fact.

The commercial trade-off is already visible. OpenAI confirmed that it had halted the planned release of GPT-6.1 Astra after internal testing found it did not meet its safety and alignment standards. Anthropic’s anticipated November flotation would bring further public-market scrutiny to the sector.

Raising investment while advocating safeguards is not inherently contradictory. The test is whether those safeguards hold when they delay revenue or give competing businesses &/or countries an advantage. For investors, security failures, legal liabilities and deployment restrictions could change forecasts quickly. Regulation may improve safety, while costly compliance could favour the largest companies.

AI’s potential is substantial. The investment question is how much becomes lasting profit after computing, infrastructure, security and compliance costs and how much success today’s share prices already assume.

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📚 Recommended Resources 💡

If you’ve made it this far, you’ve earned the good stuff. Start with Charlie Bilello’s special edition of The Week in Charts: “Put These Charts on Your Wall — 2026 Edition.” It’s a digestible dose of long-term investing perspective, covering the stories we tell ourselves, the biases that trip us up and the value of staying disciplined:

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Below, you’ll also find my podcast picks from the past month or so, conversations I believe are worth your time.

Podcast recommendations:

The Memo with Howard Marks - Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics - Part III

Shall We Repeal the Laws of... Sep 22 · The Memo by Howard Marks 27:16   ​

Patrick Boyle on Finance with Patrick Boyle - Scott Bessent Is at War with Prices - and Prices Are Winning

Scott Bessent Is at War With... Aug 30 · Patrick Boyle On Finance 44:51   ​

Invest Like The Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy - How America Keeps Winning with Walter Russell Mead

Walter Russell Mead - How Am... Sep 8 · Invest Like the Best wit... 87:07   ​

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If you would like support with your personal finances through education, coaching, advice or technology, you can learn more about the different ways we can work together and schedule a meeting through the Vantage Financial Planning website: https://vantagefp.ie/​

You will also find a selection of useful information and resources below:

​Successful Investing in Pictures.pdf​

​Vantage Investment Policy Statement.pdf​

​Vantage A-Z of Financial Planning.pdf​

​Vantage How We Can Help.pdf​

​​​Vantage What We Believe.pdf​

​Vantage Business Owner's Guide.pdf​

If you found this month’s newsletter useful, please feel free to share it with family, friends or colleagues who may also benefit. Feedback and suggestions are always welcome. If there is a personal-finance topic you would like me to explore in a future edition, please let me know.

Until next month.

Kind regards,

Ken Mason CFP®

Certified Financial Planner™

Tel: (01) 539 2670

Mobile: 083 803 2008

Email: ken.mason@vantagefp.ie

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