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Dear Reader

Money sits quietly beneath some of the most meaningful parts of our lives; love and loss, health and ill-health, security and insecurity, freedom and dependence, energy and exhaustion, connection and distance.

As the year closes and a new one begins, many of us find ourselves in a familiar in-between space. Looking back with perspective, looking forward with intention. For some, 2025 has been demanding. For others, rewarding. For most, a mixture of both.

This holiday season creates a rare pause, an opportunity not just to review outcomes, but to reflect on alignment. To ask whether the lives we are building still resemble the lives we intended to live. With time, one truth becomes clearer.

Wealth is less a destination and more a mirror. Money remains an abstraction until we give it meaning. Which raises a question worth sitting with as we close one year and open the next, what is most meaningful to you now and into the future?

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Asking Better Questions

There are a small number of questions I return to repeatedly, both with clients and privately myself:

• Who are you?
• What do you want?
• What does success look like?
• What is the money for?

They sound simple. They aren’t.

The answers evolve. What mattered at 30 rarely looks the same at 50. Life intervenes, responsibilities expand, perspective deepens. Yet beneath those changes, our core needs remain constant.

Who Are You?

It’s a difficult question at any age. The answer isn’t fixed, it evolves. As life unfolds, we should come to understand ourselves better by learning from experience. Life, after all, is a journey of self-discovery.

It’s said that we are born a thousand people but die as one. Our beliefs influence our values, our values guide our actions, and over time those actions define us. Along the way, the decisions we make shape who we ultimately become. We are also shaped by the people around us. The relationships we choose, and the quality of those relationships say a great deal about who we are.

When we lack self-awareness, we tend to default to the herd, living by the expectations of society, family, friends, &/or colleagues. As we age, our appetite for risk often declines, which may be the greatest risk of all. We can allow our self-worth to be defined by others and forget that growth requires courage. The challenge at any stage of life is to choose deliberately, rather than drift quietly into someone else’s version of who we should be.

What Do You Want?

In a world of constant distraction, overwhelming choice and effortless convenience, if you don’t define what you want, it will be defined for you. Sometimes, knowing what you don’t want is the best place to start.

Ask most people what they want and the answers are familiar: more money, financial independence, less stress, earlier retirement. But these are usually proxies for something deeper. What we truly want is far more human:

• Security
• Independence
• Purpose

In an ideal world, your personal goals will drive your financial goals, which drive your professional goals. When we don’t clearly define what we want at a personal level, financial planning defaults to financial goals, leaving the deeper questions untouched. However, it’s those deeper questions that give meaning to the plan.

What Does Success Look Like?

Success means different things to different people at different stages of life. It is contextual, shaped by age, responsibility, and perspective.

Often, success is born from failure, and the seeds of future failure can be sewn in moments of success. Without ever answering the question “How much is enough?”, the answer quietly becomes more. When the goalposts keep moving, fulfilment never quite arrives. Over time, the relentless pursuit of more can crowd out the very thing’s wealth was meant to support.

Personal, professional, and financial success exist in a delicate balance, and leaning too heavily in one direction usually comes at a cost elsewhere.

What Is the Money For?

This is where clarity accelerates. Money, in isolation, is just numbers. It becomes meaningful only when anchored to intent. When you understand who you are, what you want and your definition of life success, what the money is for usually falls under one of the below:

Freedom
Optionality
Peace of mind
Impact
Experiences
Legacy

Without context, financial activity can feel busy but hollow. With it, even imperfect decisions feel purposeful.

The Constants

No matter the year, a few realities don’t change:

• Uncertainty cannot be eliminated.
• Every decision involves trade-offs; clarity comes from choosing consciously.
• Optimisation without alignment leads to waning commitment, especially during hard times.

Most long-term regret isn’t caused by poor decisions; it’s caused by unexamined ones.

Why This Matters Now

Good financial planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about ensuring the future you’re building still makes sense. Clarity isn’t something you achieve once, it’s something you return to especially when life changes, or when success arrives faster than expected.

As 2026 begins, if something feels off, financially or otherwise, it’s often not a signal to do more. It’s a signal to ask better questions. That’s where real progress starts.

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Reviewing 2025: Beyond the Noise

As we look back on 2025, one theme stands above all others: the widening gap between headlines and reality.

Markets moved, politics raged, and media noise intensified but beneath the surface, deeper structural shifts continued to reshape affordability, geopolitics and long-term investment outcomes. Understanding why things happened mattered far more than simply reacting to what happened.

Affordability: the pressure that never left

For households across the US, Europe and Ireland, affordability remained the defining economic issue. Inflation, the rate of price increases, slowed materially during 2025. However, the price-level has proved permanent.

In the US, inflation cooled significantly to 2.7% but remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Europe followed a similar path, while Ireland experienced a modest re-acceleration with the consumer price index rising to 3.2%. In practical terms, the pace of price increases slowed but this is on top of a 24% consumer price index increase over the past 5 years.

Interest rates reflected this shift in slowing inflation. Policy rates fell from their cyclical highs, but the era of zero or near-zero interest rates did not return. Instead, rates reverted toward levels that would have been considered normal before the Global Financial Crisis. Mortgage costs eased but remained structurally higher than the post-2009 norm. Capital was no longer free.

Energy prices moved in the opposite direction. Oil prices finished 2025 at their lowest levels in several years, helping to pull headline inflation lower. That provided short-term relief, but it did not undo the higher cost base already embedded across food, housing, insurance and services.

Housing remained the central affordability battleground. The issue was structural rather than cyclical: constrained supply, planning delays, higher construction costs and sustained demand from demographic and migration pressures. Even as inflation cooled and rates eased, the housing constraint persisted.

Labour markets added further pressure. Legal immigration helped offset ageing demographics, while tighter enforcement of illegal immigration reduced labour supply at the margin pushing up wages in construction, care and services. Tariffs, reshoring and national-security-driven supply chains increased costs further. The result is a world that is less efficient and structurally more inflation prone.

Politics and geopolitics: from globalisation to fragmentation

2025 reinforced that we are no longer living in a rules-based global economic system, we are living in a transactional one.

Politically sensitive manufacturing and supply chains continued to be reshaped under the banner of national security. The economic cold war, particularly between the US and China, deepened across trade, technology, energy and capital flows. Hybrid warfare, cyber disruption and strategic ambiguity became features rather than outliers.

Politically, pragmatic, truth-seeking leadership remained scarce. The middle was increasingly squeezed between the extremes of left and right, with sharp policy swings driven by electoral incentives rather than long-term planning. Strong-man politics gained ground, the backlash against “wokeness” intensified, and governing became more volatile.

Europe struggled with bureaucracy, regulation and ideological inertia. China continued to wrestle with its transition from an investment-led to a consumption-led economy, remaining dependent on exporting surplus production into higher-consumption regions often at prices domestic producers struggled to match.

The end of the peace dividend

One of the most under-appreciated developments of 2025 was the formal end of the peace dividend.

Military spending rose materially across the US and Europe, not as preparation for war, but as a deterrent against it. Historically, defence spending has acted as a powerful accelerator of technological progress by compressing timelines, forcing scale and de-risking early adoption. Many technologies central to modern life from GPS to semiconductors emerged from similar periods of geopolitical tension.

Global security is no longer being underwritten by the US taxpayer. The burden is being reshared, and the fiscal implications are significant.

Debt, bonds and the return of discipline

Rising sovereign debt became increasingly difficult to ignore. The bond market reasserted its authority. Government borrowing costs remained elevated enough to remind policymakers that deficits are not costless. Debt servicing absorbed a growing share of public finances, and long-term sustainability returned to the discussion.

The US dollar weakened over the year, reflecting increased sensitivity to fiscal deficits, geopolitical risk and policy credibility. Dollar dominance remains intact, but confidence is no longer unquestioned, encouraging diversification among central banks and long-term investors.

Markets in 2025: returns, not narratives

Despite the noise, markets proved resilient. On a calendar-year basis, global equities delivered strong returns, with leadership broader than in prior years. US equities remained dominant, but Europe, the UK and Ireland all delivered competitive performance. Emerging markets surprised on the upside. Small-cap and value factors regained relevance as interest rate cuts helped alleviate borrowing costs.

Commodities and geopolitical hedging

Commodities told a different story. Gold and silver posted exceptional gains, driven less by inflation concerns and more by geopolitical risk, central bank reserve diversification and declining confidence in the dollar-centric system. Strategic materials such as copper, rare earths and semiconductors remained critical chokepoints, reflecting the realities of reshoring, electrification and defence spending.

Media, trust and information decay

Trust in traditional media and institutions continued to erode. Incentives increasingly rewarded outrage, selective framing and agenda-driven narratives. Context was sacrificed for attention, and echo chambers deepened. In an environment where consistently reliable, agenda-free information is increasingly scarce, critical thinking became a genuine economic advantage.

What this means for investors

2025 reinforced a simple truth: successful investing is not about predicting headlines but earnings. Please click for Vantage's Successful Investing in Pictures PDF:

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Previewing 2026: Uncertainty, Opportunity, & the Value of a Plan

As we look toward 2026, investors face a familiar mix of anxiety and excitement. New federal reserve leadership in the US, mid-term elections, stretched valuations (especially in AI), and historically high public debt, all against a backdrop of reasonable growth.

A Changing Monetary and Political Landscape

One of the most significant shifts arrives in the US, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. His departure introduces uncertainty, not necessarily higher interest rates, but greater volatility around expectations.

Later in the year, US mid-term elections on 3 November 2026 will add further noise. Campaign rhetoric around taxation, regulation, technology, and trade often unsettles markets, even though history shows that political gridlock has rarely been harmful to long-term investors.

Technology: Progress, Not Perfection

Artificial intelligence remains one of the defining themes of this decade. By 2026, the focus is likely to shift from what AI can do, to what it can do profitably. Some areas may prove over-hyped, while others quietly embed themselves into everyday business productivity.

This pattern isn’t new. Every major technological leap has experienced periods of irrational exuberance followed by consolidation before long-term winners emerge.

Rather than speculate, educate yourself on AI's past, present & future starting with the Thinking Game Documentary below:

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Filmed over five years by the award-winning team behind AlphaGo, the documentary examines how Demis Hassabis’s extraordinary beginnings shaped his lifelong pursuit of artificial general intelligence.

Wealth Inequality and Policy Risk

Rising asset prices have benefited owners of invested capital, while higher living costs have strained earners. As inequality becomes more politically visible, investors should expect continued debate around taxation, regulation, and wealth redistribution. The richest Americans control $46 trillion in wealth, but many pay little or no federal tax. Ray Madoff of Boston College Law School masterfully unpacks the reasons why:

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This doesn’t mean dramatic policy shifts are inevitable, but it does mean tax planning and structure will play a growing role in long-term financial outcomes.

Record Government Debt: During “Good Times”

Perhaps the most under-discussed risk is global government debt. Levels normally associated with crises are now present during periods of reasonable economic growth. This limits future policy flexibility and increases the temptation for governments to allow inflation to run modestly higher over time.

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At Vantage, our mission is simple: to minimise future financial regret. That isn’t always an easy message to communicate particularly to younger people, for whom delayed gratification can feel abstract and distant. As an industry, financial planning has so far failed to frame this work in a way that feels engaging, relevant, and human.

I usually try to lead with the carrot the opportunities, freedom, and choices that good planning can create. But sometimes the stick is unavoidable. Real-life consequences can cut through complacency in a way projections and charts cannot.

The short video below, “Life Lessons from Older Americans Who Still Work to Pay the Bills,” is a powerful reminder of what can happen when planning is postponed for too long. It raises an uncomfortable but important question: can we learn from the mistakes of others, or are we doomed to repeat them?

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Remaining financially dependent on work, family, friends, or the state well into old age is a precarious position. Planning isn’t about fear, it’s about preserving independence, dignity, and choice for as long as possible.

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📚 Recommended resources 💡

JP Morgan Guide To The Markets (EMEA Monthly):

​​​JP Morgan Guide to the Markets EMEA 30th November 2025.pdf​​​​​​​​​

Book recommendations:

Transcend: The New Science of Self-Actualization and How It Can Transform Your Life by Scott Barry Kaufman

Amazon

When Breath Becomes Air: What Makes Life Worth Living in The Face of Death by Paul Kalanithi

Amazon

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I hope you enjoyed a wonderful Christmas, the kind where you lose track of time while making memories with family and friends. As we close out 2025, I’d like to thank you sincerely for your trust, your business, and your continued support. It’s a privilege to work with you.

Wishing you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2026 and beyond.

If you’d like support with personal finance education, coaching, advice, or financial technology, I’d be delighted to help, you can reach me using the contact details below.

If you found this month’s newsletter useful, please feel free to share it with family, friends, or colleagues who might also benefit. Referrals are always appreciated and are the greatest compliment we can receive. As the new year brings fresh opportunities, you’ll find a selection of marketing materials below that outline what we do, how we do it, and who we typically work with:

​Vantage What We Believe.pdf​

​Vantage How We Can Help.pdf​

​Vantage A-Z of Financial Planning.pdf​

​Vantage Business Owner's Guide.pdf​

​Vantage Investment Policy Statement.pdf​

As always, constructive feedback is very welcome. And if there’s a personal finance topic you’d like me to cover in a future edition, just let me know.

Until next month.

Kind regards,

Ken Mason CFP®

Certified Financial Planner™

Tel: (01) 539 2670

Mobile: 083 803 2008

Email: ken.mason@vantagefp.iewww.linkedin.com

Vantage | Master Your Money, Your Way.

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